So much to digest here — all of it helpful, nuanced, and transparent. I've wondered about the difference between the original projections and the past century's reality, and this piece lays that out clearly. Thank you, Len.
I live in Rico, CO, just south of the Dolores River headwaters. Would this site be a reliable place to keep an eye on the gauges next spring?
So far I'm not impressed with the yammering of the Colorado political class. We can fallow some land too. Not in the discussion. Our political class is getting similarly delusional about energy. I say
plant panels. Harvest electrons. Instead the political class seems to be endlessly apologizing to "rural Colorado" for unleashing the wolves on them. And even considering water-guzzling nukes to "save farmland" instead of zero water wind and solar. (OK, TINY overall amounts for dust mitigation during construction and concrete for the wind tower foundations. 90% of panel cleaning is now either just blown off or done by brushing.)
I'm not hopeful for an overall significant reprieve in the temp or precip.
I follow the fine folks at RenewEconomy.au.com, who mostly feature the tech and politics of solar, wind, energy storage and electrification vs. status quo down under. But during one pod they talked with a climate scientist who pointed out that there are now far fewer year of non-Nino. More El- or La-.
In any case, thanks Dr. Len for some nice writing and insightful discussion about the science and math of predictions in general and climate/weather in particular.
Having lived in 4 corners CO, I have followed the CO River debate. Two comments: according official numbers, the CoE over allocated the flow from Powell to Meade by 30%. approx 10m af as opposed to the accords required 75m af per 10yr period. Powell could be saved, but not meade? I read that in Jan 2022 a volcanic eruption in the Pacific (1000 ft down) increased the atmospheric moisture content by more than 15% (NOA/NASA). NOA predicted an immediate planetary temp increase of 1.5', said increase to last a decade and further predicted a dramatic change in weather patterns. Please comment. Am I wrong?
Thank you for so cogently explaining such a complex topic. I'm not surprised, but continue to be dismayed.
Question: in Cadillac Desert (old and dated, i know) the author stated that the southwest had a somewhat predictable 20 year drought cycle. Is that idea completely discredited at this point, orbcompletely broken by climate change, or is it possible that we might see a slight uptick in moisture in the next 10-20 years?
Wow, what a long and interesting read (something I rarely say anymore).
The casino always wins. We keep betting against it and like a gambler a single win only encourages us.
And the odds are changing, and not in our favour.
So much to digest here — all of it helpful, nuanced, and transparent. I've wondered about the difference between the original projections and the past century's reality, and this piece lays that out clearly. Thank you, Len.
I live in Rico, CO, just south of the Dolores River headwaters. Would this site be a reliable place to keep an eye on the gauges next spring?
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-09165000/
I see notes about some data being provisional, which makes me wonder what's being maintained in light of cuts to federal jobs in the last year plus.
Also, BTW, love the comparative pics of linking turns, or not, through the stumps up on the Santa Catalinas.
So far I'm not impressed with the yammering of the Colorado political class. We can fallow some land too. Not in the discussion. Our political class is getting similarly delusional about energy. I say
plant panels. Harvest electrons. Instead the political class seems to be endlessly apologizing to "rural Colorado" for unleashing the wolves on them. And even considering water-guzzling nukes to "save farmland" instead of zero water wind and solar. (OK, TINY overall amounts for dust mitigation during construction and concrete for the wind tower foundations. 90% of panel cleaning is now either just blown off or done by brushing.)
I'm not hopeful for an overall significant reprieve in the temp or precip.
I follow the fine folks at RenewEconomy.au.com, who mostly feature the tech and politics of solar, wind, energy storage and electrification vs. status quo down under. But during one pod they talked with a climate scientist who pointed out that there are now far fewer year of non-Nino. More El- or La-.
In any case, thanks Dr. Len for some nice writing and insightful discussion about the science and math of predictions in general and climate/weather in particular.
Having lived in 4 corners CO, I have followed the CO River debate. Two comments: according official numbers, the CoE over allocated the flow from Powell to Meade by 30%. approx 10m af as opposed to the accords required 75m af per 10yr period. Powell could be saved, but not meade? I read that in Jan 2022 a volcanic eruption in the Pacific (1000 ft down) increased the atmospheric moisture content by more than 15% (NOA/NASA). NOA predicted an immediate planetary temp increase of 1.5', said increase to last a decade and further predicted a dramatic change in weather patterns. Please comment. Am I wrong?
Thank you for so cogently explaining such a complex topic. I'm not surprised, but continue to be dismayed.
Question: in Cadillac Desert (old and dated, i know) the author stated that the southwest had a somewhat predictable 20 year drought cycle. Is that idea completely discredited at this point, orbcompletely broken by climate change, or is it possible that we might see a slight uptick in moisture in the next 10-20 years?